Why will I see the infection numbers increase and what do all these numbers mean?
This is a great question and one that gets to the bottom of everything. Testing, testing and more testing is what is needed. Why??? Without additional testing, we cannot gather accurate data for proper and accurate scientific evaluation or develop potential treatment methodologies. At this time, most states are only providing testing for those patients who are symptomatic and presumed to be infected by Covid-19 (CV19). Though this is very important, it is only a drop in the bucket.
Let’s talk about a few things. If you look at the numbers right now, most people will automatically have a sinking feeling in their gut, but I want you to learn about what it actually means. First, please do not misinterpret the following talking points and falsely presume that I don’t care about human life and the loss of life. This couldn’t be further from the truth, but in order to grasp an understanding of all these “numbers” that are being thrown around, it is necessary to step back.
Here is a simple example of why properly understanding this is so important:
We hear that the United States (U.S.) has a death rate higher than that of Italy. On one hand, that is true however; if you don’t read this in the proper context, you could easily be misled. So, again, the U.S. has more deaths and Italy and Italy was absolutely devastated… but, in this case, you must look at deaths per capita. Another words, Italy is roughly the size of 2-3 states in the United States so, if you look at it that way, the deaths may “exceed” those in Italy but in reality, we have far, far fewer deaths per capita.
Death Rates and All These Numbers;
Here is something else to understand. The “Death Rate” is calculated using this formula:
Death Rate = # of dead / (divided by), # of infected
So, as of this evening, within the State of GA:
1067 deaths / 25,411 infections = 4.1% death rate
Using this calculation, you can see that the “greater number of people being tested” the end result can change significantly. Example:
1067 deaths / 100,00 infections = 1.0% death rate
This basic formula can now be used to understand the following: (based upon the latest GA numbers)
25,411 people tested positive / 143,778 tested = infection rate is 17%
Sadly, 17% is a pretty big number. On a slightly more optimistic note, approximately 20% of infected patients demonstrate symptoms that require hospitalizations and there was only a 4.1% death rate, so you can also understand that the recovery rate is very high.
As more and more testing being done (as demonstrated by California and New York this past week), we’re finding that the percentage of those who have been exposed and/or had Covis-19 (CV19) with either no, to minimal symptoms is likely, 20 – 80 times higher. The more testing, the more information we get and the more we understand what is really going on and also brings the numbers into a whole new light. So, based upon today’s most up to date U.S. numbers, there are 981,246 cases and 55,258 deaths. Using the formulas above, we understand this to be a death rate of approximately: 5.6%
Now, let’s increase the number of people who have likely been exposed and/or had Covid-19 (CV19) and calculate it based on the current number of deaths. So, let’s look at the 20 – 80 times higher and just take a 50% increase in those who have already been infected/exposed.
981,246 x 50% = 1,476,869
Now take 55,258 / 1,476,869 = the new death rate is 3.7%
Now look at it in light of the entire population of the USA. The estimated U.S. population is 328,877,386. Let's say that approximately 50% of the people have had been exposed or developed antibodies to Covid-19 (CV19); that is 164,438,693. Now let's use the same "current death rate from Covid-19 (CV19)," then the numbers change dramatically.
55,258 deaths / 164,438,693 people infected: the new death rate is now .003%.
What I hope is learned is that the more and more testing performed will provide a much better understanding of how many people have actually been exposed and/or infected. This number will then have a profound effect upon the end result and that will most likely reveal that the real number of “deaths” is under 1%. If this is the case, and then the talk about COVID-19 (CV19) bring comparable to the “flu.”
** Special Note: unfortunately, even just a little research has shown that the current death rate in the USA (57,505 as of today), includes countless number of deaths completely unrelated to Covid-19 (CV19). At this time we know that most any death during this pandemic, whether related or unrelated, have death certificates claiming that death was as a result of Covid-19 (CV19)." Some examples are myocardial infarction (MI: heart attack), stroke (Cardio-Vascular Accident (CVA)), fatal injuries... and yes, even murder (such s the case of the alleged "infant death in Texas" that has been attributed to Covid-19 (CV19), when it was the babysitter who smothered the infant with a pillow).
Why? Well, I cannot say with any degree of certainty however; there is a lot, a lot of money involved here and hospital reimbursement is far greater for a deaths related to Covid-19 (CV19) as opposed to other causes of death